UAT Racing's Early Win Odds. Before TJK's official probable odds are published, it produces a data-based probable price for every horse from the morning on — with a transparent source label.
EGO — Early Win Odds is UAT Racing's engine that produces a data-based probable price for every runner well before — from the morning on — while TJK has not yet published its official probable odds. When that cell is still empty in other bulletins, EGO already offers an early estimate, and labels which number comes from where with a transparent badge (EGO / TJK).
EGO is part of UAT Racing's identity as a platform that doesn't merely publish TJK data but creates its own metrics. It continues the same philosophy as Rating (Overall Score), UATRichter (Surprise Index) and GHN (Global Horse Number): commentary on top of data, and concepts worth commenting on.
EGO converts four core features of each horse into z-scores and sums them with weights; a softmax turns that into a win probability, and from there into a fair and probable price. The weights aren't set by hand — they come from a conditional-logit model trained on past races (leakage-free, out-of-sample).
Rating is the heaviest component; jockey and form follow. The weights were trained on March–April 2026 data and tested on May–June 2026.
EGO was evaluated on the May–June 2026 period it never saw during training:
Honest note: EGO is an early estimate; it does not aim to beat the final market (closing odds) on probability calibration. Its value is having a strong leading signal in hand while the official probable isn't out yet. It is not a guarantee or investment advice.
The probable price you see in the bulletin comes from this priority ladder; the badge instantly shows which source is in use:
In the early morning it's EGO; as the day goes on and TJK's probable arrives, it automatically switches to the official value. The screen always keeps the most current and most reliable number.
Want to see EGO live?