UAT Richter
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UAT Racing — Signature Tools

UATRichter

Turkey's first and only race surprise index. It measures how much each race day was shaken, on a 0–10 logarithmic scale — just like the earthquake Richter scale.

Invented by UAT Racing · computed for 17,653 hippodrome-days since 1990

What Is UATRichter?

UATRichter is a "surprise level" score produced for every hippodrome of every race day, between 0 and 10. A low score means "the favorites won, punters were comfortable"; a high score means "nobody got it, everyone was wiped out, the pools carried over".

The name comes from the scale's structure: just like the earthquake Richter scale, it is logarithmic. An 8-point day isn't 10× more "intense" than a 7-point day — it's 10× more cumulative surprise. That's why moving from 5 to 6 and from 8 to 9 are very different worlds of difficulty.

UATRichter is one of the symbols of UAT Racing's identity as a platform that doesn't merely publish TJK data but creates its own metrics. It belongs to the same philosophy as other UAT Racing indicators such as Turf/Dirt/Synthetic Rating scores: commentary on top of data, concepts worth commenting on.

How Is It Calculated?

UATRichter is made of two components:

Formula
richter = Σ log₁₀(winning_oddsi) + carryover_bonus
Clamped to [0.0, 10.0], displayed with 1-decimal precision.
Carryover bonuses (highest one per category, once)
  • 1.5 — Any Six (altılı) carried over
  • 1.0 — Seven (yedili) win pool carried over
  • 0.5 — Seven place carried over
  • 0.5 — Five (beşli) win carried over
  • 0.3 — Four (dörtlü) win carried over
  • 0.2 — Ordered-Five / Tabela carried over

Example: if the average win odds per race on a day is 4, the base_score is roughly 8 × log₁₀(4) ≈ 4.8 — that falls in the "Typical Day" class. But if every race is a surprise and the average odds rise to 10: 8 × log₁₀(10) = 8.0 → "Tough Day". Add a Six carryover on top and it climbs to 9.5 — "Earthquake".

The Scale — 4 Levels

Every UATRichter score maps to one of 4 "intensity" classes. The color codes are used live across the pages:

0 — 3
Calm Day
The favorites won, punters were comfortable. Low surprise level, the Six was hit easily.
4 — 6
Typical Day
A standard race day. Some surprises, but there are winners. The vast majority of days fall in this band.
7 — 8
Tough Day
Punters were badly shaken. Most coupons burned early, few survived. The bets pay big.
9 — 10
Devastating Day — Earthquake
A historic day. Nobody got it, everyone was wiped out. The Six/Seven carried over. Seen 1–2 times a year.

Historical Coverage

UATRichter is computed from UAT Racing's race archive accumulated since 1990. Total coverage:

36
Years
(1990 — 2026)
17,653
Hippodrome-days
scored
10
Hippodromes
(all active cities)
16
Historic earthquakes
(richter ≥ 9.5)
145
Tough days
(richter ≥ 8)
4.3
All-time
average

Before 31 Dec 2025: win odds are used (no carryover data). After 31 Dec 2025: full-precision calculation with TJK modern betting data (carryovers included).

Historic Earthquakes — Richter ≥ 9.8

The 10 days in the last 36 years when UATRichter reached its highest levels. Note the list: it's no coincidence that 5 of them are from the summer of 2020 — in the low-turnover period after the pandemic, odds turned volatile.

Date Hippodrome UATRichter Avg Odds Max Odds Races
13 Nov 2002İstanbul10.019.4346.4510
11 Jun 2020Ankara10.014.6130.3010
23 Aug 2025İzmir10.013.4155.7011
12 Apr 2021Şanlıurfa10.014.9926.209
7 Jul 2020Ankara10.014.2049.2010
20 Jul 2020Şanlıurfa10.010.9141.9012
12 Jun 2024İstanbul10.021.4168.059
19 Jun 2020İstanbul10.07.8715.0512
20 Aug 2020Ankara9.814.8056.3010
5 Nov 2021Bursa9.813.3945.5010

Hippodrome Personalities (Last 10 Years)

Every hippodrome has a personality: some are easy to hit, some constantly throw up surprises. The UATRichter average reveals these personalities:

Hippodrome Average UATRichter Tough Days (≥8) Earthquakes (≥9) Hardest Total Race Days
Şanlıurfa5.3420610.0591
Elazığ4.95729.4455
Ankara4.7517410.0916
Bursa4.681969.8976
Diyarbakır4.64629.5317
İstanbul4.588210.01.441
Antalya4.47108.2200
Adana4.402029.81.075
İzmir4.3824210.01.296
Kocaeli4.14808.6744

📊 Şanlıurfa is Turkey's most surprising hippodrome — it sees a "tough day" about 1.8 times a year on average. Kocaeli is the calmest, never having had an earthquake (≥9). İzmir has the most tough days in absolute count (24) — but since it races so often, the rate drops.

For detailed annual hippodrome statistics, you can log in to the Statistics 🔒 page.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why doesn't UATRichter exist anywhere else?
This metric is UAT Racing's own design. UAT Racing isn't just a platform that publishes TJK data — it produces new indicators on top of it. UATRichter is one of the products of that philosophy. It sits alongside other UAT Racing indicators such as Turf, Dirt and Synthetic Rating scores.
At what time of day is UATRichter computed?
UATRichter refreshes in real time as races finish. Throughout race hours (14:00–23:30) it recalculates every 30 minutes. At 02:00 the previous day's final calculation is made (after late bets settle).
Which city has the highest average UATRichter?
Over the last 10 years, Şanlıurfa has the highest average UATRichter (5.34). It's followed by Elazığ (4.95), Ankara (4.75) and Bursa (4.68). The "calmest" hippodrome is Kocaeli (4.14).
Can UATRichter be used to predict the future?
It isn't a direct prediction metric — it's a backward-looking (post-mortem) metric. But from historical averages you can derive notes like "there hasn't been a tough day in Şanlıurfa for a while, so statistically one is due". Because the UATRichter distribution stays consistent across years, forecast-oriented analyses are valuable.
Why does the score sometimes lock at 10.0?
Because 10.0 is the upper bound (clamp). On very extreme days the raw score can reach 11+ or 12+, but it's clamped to 10.0 to keep the visual clean. This keeps the scale understandable for everyone. The raw base_score is also reported separately in expert views.
What's the relationship between UATRichter and the chance of hitting the Six?
The relationship is strong and inverse. The higher the UATRichter, the lower the chance of hitting the Six (altılı). Rule of thumb: if the score ≤4, plenty of people hit the Six; if 7+, the Six usually carries over or very few hit it.

🌋 What's Today's UATRichter?

To see the live UATRichter score for each of today's hippodromes — plus the day summary, top-5 finishes and bet payouts — visit Today's Results.

🏆 Today's Results 🏇 Today's Races